2021 NBA Finals: Suns vs. Bucks odds, line, picks, Game 6 predictions from model on 100-66 roll

Mike Budenholzer and the Milwaukee Bucks can bring a championship to Wisconsin on Tuesday evening. The Bucks lead the Phoenix Suns 3-2 in the 2021 NBA Finals, with Game 6 at Fiserv Forum. Milwaukee trailed 0-2 in the series before winning two home games, then the Bucks pulled off an upset in Game 5 in Phoenix. The Suns, led by Devin Booker and Chris Paul, must win on the road to stay alive. 

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. The latest Bucks vs. Suns odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Milwaukee as a five-point favorite. The over-under is set at 222, the highest total in the series thus far. Before making any Suns vs. Bucks picks, be sure to see the NBA Finals 2021 predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $600 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the final week of the 2021 NBA Finals on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in its Bucks vs. Suns picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Suns vs. Bucks:

Suns vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -5 Suns vs. Bucks over-under: 222 points Suns vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -200, Suns +175 PHX: The Suns are 6-3 against the spread in the last nine road game MIL: The Bucks are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven home games

Featured Game | Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns

Why the Suns can cover

Phoenix is a tremendous offensive team, which was clear in their Game 5 loss. The Suns scored 1.29 points per possession on Saturday, committing a turnover on fewer than 10 percent of possessions, while generating a 64.8 percent true shooting mark. Booker led the way with 40 points in Game 5, and the Suns have myriad options to stretch opposing defenses. 

Dating back to the regular season, Phoenix posted an offensive rating of 116.3 points per 100 possessions, with elite-tier shooting metrics to go along with top-five marks in assists and turnover avoidance. While it could be accurate to suggest Phoenix isn’t likely to fully repeat its Game 5 shooting performance, which included 13-of-19 from 3-point range, as the series shifts to Milwaukee, it’s also worth pointing out that the Suns are a better defensive team than some may think. Phoenix is allowing fewer than 1.1 points per possession during the 2021 NBA Playoffs, and Milwaukee’s shooting has waxed and waned at times during its playoff push.

Why the Bucks can cover

After two relatively lopsided defeats in Phoenix to begin the series, Milwaukee has been dominant in the series. The Bucks are out-scoring the Suns by 10.9 points per 100 possessions over the course of a three-game winning streak, and their numbers are staggering on both sides. Offensively, Milwaukee is generating 123.5 points per 100 possessions, taking advantage of the possession battle. The Bucks are grabbing more than 33 percent of their own missed shots on the offensive glass, and they are committing a turnover on just 9.1 percent of offensive possessions in those three contests. 

They’ve upped their shooting efficiency as well, and the Bucks have a whopping 2.92 assists for every turnover during the streak. Defensively, Milwaukee is forcing a turnover on 14.3 percent of possessions, and the Bucks are cleaning up on the defensive glass with more than 76 percent of available rebounds landing in their lap. 

How to make Suns vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 216 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get that NBA Finals Game 6 pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Suns vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Bucks vs. Suns spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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