2021 NBA Playoffs: Bucks vs. Hawks odds, line, picks, Game 4 predictions from computer model on 100-66 roll

The Atlanta Hawks face a sense of urgency as they take on the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday evening in the 2021 NBA Playoffs. The Hawks trail the Bucks by a 2-1 margin in the 2021 Eastern Conference finals, and Atlanta looks to avoid a 3-1 hole with Game 4 in its home venue. Milwaukee has won the last two games, including a blowout in Game 2 and an 11-point win in Game 3 on the road. Trae Young (foot) is listed as questionable for Atlanta but is expected to play, with Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) listed as probable. Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) is probable for Milwaukee.

Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Bucks vs. Hawks odds. The over-under, or total number of points expected, is down to 218.5 after opening at 222.5. Before finalizing any Hawks vs. Bucks picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $700 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the conference finals of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has locked in its Bucks vs. Hawks picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Hawks vs. Bucks:

Bucks vs. Hawks spread: Bucks -6.5Bucks vs. Hawks over-under: 218.5 pointsBucks vs. Hawks money line: Bucks -270, Hawks +230MIL: The Bucks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 gamesATL: The Hawks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Why the Bucks can cover

The Bucks were a top-five offensive team in the NBA during the regular season, scoring more than 1.16 points per possession. In this series, they’ve carried that success over, scoring nearly 1.19 points per possession and generating quality looks with regularity. Antetokounmpo is averaging 30.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game in the series, improving on his already impressive regular season numbers, and Khris Middleton found his stride with 38 points in Game 3, including 20 in the fourth quarter. As a team, the Bucks have also taken care of the ball, committing a turnover on only 12.2 percent of possessions against Atlanta, and they are generating 2.31 assists for every turnover, an elite ratio. 

Milwaukee is also bludgeoning Atlanta on the offensive glass, securing 34.8 percent of its own missed shots, and that swings the math in its favor. Milwaukee is also out-shooting the Hawks for the series, attacking the paint and converting 49.7 percent of their shots despite uneven three-point shooting efficiency. With that offensive output combined with the best defensive rating (103.2 points allowed per 100 possessions) in the 2021 NBA Playoffs, the Bucks are formidable.

Why the Hawks can cover

The Hawks are playing some of their best defense of the 2020-21 season in the playoffs. Atlanta is allowing fewer than 1.1 points per possession, a sharp improvement from the 72-game regular season. In addition, the Hawks are holding the Bucks to just 32 percent shooting from 3-point range, and that comes after Atlanta was a top-three team in the NBA in 3-point prevention (34.9 percent) during the regular season. Nate McMillan’s club has been excellent at keeping the Bucks away from the free-throw line, allowing a 0.178 free-throw rate, and they were above-average in limiting free-throw attempts throughout the campaign. 

Offensively, it’s been more challenging for the Hawks, but this was a top-10 offense during the regular season, and they are limiting turnovers to just 12.7 percent of their offensive possessions in the series. Atlanta also has room to grow in its 3-point shooting after making 37.3 percent of its triples in 2020-21, and positive regression is in the offing for Bogdanovic, who is shooting 29.6 percent from three in the playoffs after making more than 43 percent of his attempts this season.

How to make Hawks vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 221 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time. You can only get this pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bucks vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.

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