The NBA Finals have reached a point of homeostasis. We know what works and what does not. We know how the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat match up against one another and all of the wrinkles either team might come up with. At this point, we’re relying on what we’ve seen in the series so far. There probably won’t be many more surprises. With that in mind, let’s dive right into the best prop bets on the board for Sunday’s Game 6.
All lines via William Hill Sportsbook
In Game 2 of the 2018 Finals, JR Smith took five shots in the first quarter, and used a sixth possession to get to the free-throw line. What’s the lesson here? LeBron James will try to make Danny Green feel involved early in Game 6. He knows Green is no use to him with shaken confidence. So he’ll feed him shots early to try to build him up. Either he’ll make those shots, and the problem is solved, or he’ll miss, and he won’t play a factor in the remainder of this series. Regardless, that volume is promising.
The Lakers have defended Robinson incredibly well in this series. The seven 3-pointers he made in Game 5 were not remotely sustainable. His realistic upside is something closer to the 17 points he scored in Game 4, but he finished under this total in Games 1-3. The Lakers defend handoffs and off-ball motion extremely well. Robinson can always get hot, but I wouldn’t rely on that.
If Anthony Davis is less than 100 percent with that heel contusion, there isn’t another Laker capable of defending Butler. That’s what led to Butler’s explosion in Game 5. Davis got switched off him constantly and he roasted everybody else. The Lakers could throw LeBron James at him, but he has so much to do on offense right now that it would probably be asking too much of him. The Lakers don’t need to stop Butler. They need to stop everybody else.
Anthony Davis under 26.5 points
Davis had 28 points despite his injury in Game 5, but he had only 37 total in Games 3 and 4. Miami’s aggressive strategy of fronting the post and sending doubles has limited his scoring. If the Heat keep that up and he’s not fully healthy, expect him to take on more of a supporting role offensively.
Rajon Rondo hasn’t done much over the past few games, but he’s rebounded. He’s topped this total in each of. thepast three games and is averaging almost seven of them in that span. One of Rondo’s best traits is his ability to navigate the court. He’s not getting these rebounds by traditional box-outs. He’s finding creases to sneak through, and there’s no reason to believe that he won’t keep that up in Game 6.