The Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat match up in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday evening. Miami leads the series by a 3-2 margin, though Boston avoided elimination with a win in Game 5 on Friday. Romeo Langford (wrist) is out for the Celtics, with Gabe Vincent (knee) listed as questionable for the Heat.
Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Orlando. William Hill lists the Celtics as 3.5-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 214 in the latest Celtics vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Celtics picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 61-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,500 on those picks alone. It’s also a sizzling 11-3 on top-rated picks since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Heat. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Heat vs. Celtics:
Celtics vs. Heat spread: Celtics -3.5Celtics vs. Heat over-under: 214 pointsCeltics vs. Heat money line: Celtics -150, Heat +130BOS: The Celtics are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 gamesMIA: The Heat are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 gamesWhy the Celtics can cover
The Celtics are an elite defensive team, even dating back to the regular season. Boston ranked in the top six of the NBA in defensive efficiency, shooting efficiency allowed and turnover creation during the regular season, and the Celtics have been even better in the playoffs. Boston ranks No. 2 in defense among playoff teams, allowing just 1.05 points per possession, and the Celtics are No. 1 in shooting efficiency allowed in the postseason.
On the offensive side, Boston is scoring at an impressive rate against Miami, putting up 114.5 points per 100 possessions. Some of that can be traced to effectiveness on the offensive glass, with the Celtics grabbing 29.9 percent of their own missed shots in the series. That mark would rank No. 1 in the league when compared to the regular season baseline, and Boston is led by a trio of high-powered scorers in Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown.
Why the Heat can cover
The Heat are stellar on both ends of the court, with head coach Erik Spoelstra able to deploy varied lineups. On the offensive side, Miami ranks as a top-five team in the playoffs, scoring 112.7 points per 100 possessions and landing in the top five in both offensive rebounding and free throw creation. Against the Celtics, the Heat are generating an elite 66.5 percent assist rate, with an impressive 2.19 assists for every turnover. Miami is limiting its turnovers, giving the ball away on only 10.9 percent of possessions against Boston, and that leads to a healthy offense.
On the other end, the Heat are No. 3 in the NBA in shooting efficiency allowed during the playoffs, with stout perimeter defense at the forefront. From there, Miami generates 7.6 steals and 4.3 blocks per game in the postseason, ranking as above-average in both areas when compared to other playoff teams.
How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with Jimmy Butler and Gordon Hayward projected to fall short of their season-long scoring averages. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.