Do you hear that sound? That’s the weekend, and it’s right around the corner. If you’re like me, the weekend means hours of sitting on your butt watching football and occasionally getting up to do things like shower or pay attention to other people.
Before you get to that couch and tune out the rest of the world, though, you want to make sure you have the knowledge to flourish. So, with that in mind, I’ve got plenty of picks for you today that cover tonight’s action, as well as all that football. All you have to do is read it, digest it, and follow it. Then, before you know it, you’ll have become one with both the couch and remote while watching your bank account grow.
Or maybe you’ll lose, but it’s the journey, not the destination! Join me on it, and if you want to yell at me about any picks I get wrong, find me on Twitter. I’m always getting yelled at on there anyway.
The next stop on this journey are these stories you’ll want to catch up on before calling it a week.
Done reading those stories? Good, let’s go make some money.
All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook
🏆 The Hot Ticket
🏀 Celtics vs. Heat, 8:30 p.m. | TV: ESPNThe Pick: Under 213.5 (-110): Remember the other day when I took the Celtics because I thought they’d figured out the Heat? Sure you do. I talked about the defensive adjustments that Boston made, and how Miami’s performance in the first two games wasn’t sustainable. Well, then a Herro came along, with the strength to carry the whole dang team on his back. I still don’t think the Heat can maintain the torrid shooting they’ve had in three of the first four games, nor do I believe that Boston is as bad as it has looked at times.
So, the under seems like the best play here. Boston has its back to the wall and is going to fight for its survival. I expect the defensive intensity to pick up a notch or two tonight because of it. Combined with some overdue regression for the Heat offense, that could lead to an uglier game than the ones we’ve seen in this series so far.
Key Trend: The under is 5-1 following Boston’s last six losses.
Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine’s Advanced Computer Model has been simulatin’ up a storm again, and it has a couple of leans on tonight’s game.
💰The Picks ⚾ MLB | Full weekend schedule
Reds at Twins, 8:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TVThe Pick: Over 8.5 (-110) — Listen, full disclosure here; I will be rooting like hell against the Twins tonight and all weekend. They’ve surpassed my Choking White Sox in the AL Central race, and I need them to drop at least two games to the Reds. Still, while I’m rooting against Minnesota tonight, I’ll be rooting for an 8-7 loss. Target Field isn’t overly hitter-friendly on its own, but with weather conditions like the ones this game will be played in tonight, it becomes a hitter’s paradise. Cincinnati starter Tyler Mahle gives up many dingers as it is, and while Minnesota’s Jose Berrios is the stronger pitcher, he doesn’t miss a lot of bats himself.
Key Trend: The over is 6-2-1 in the last nine games the Twins have been favorites.
Angels at Dodgers, 9:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TVThe Pick: Under 8 (-115) — It’s not often we get to bet a Clayton Kershaw home start with a total of eight or higher. Kershaw has made 182 starts at Dodgers Stadium in his career, and only 36 of them have featured a total of eight runs or more. Let’s take advantage of it, shall we? While Kershaw isn’t the same pitcher he once was, he’s still better than nearly everybody else, and he’s also backed by one of the best bullpens in the game. Kershaw, combined with the weather conditions tonight in Los Angeles, should lead to a lower-scoring affair.
Key Trend: The under is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings between these crosstown rivals.
🏈 NFL | Full weekend schedule
Titans at Vikings, 1 p.m. | TV: CBSThe Pick: Vikings +2.5 (-110) — The Vikings aren’t as bad as they’ve looked through the first two weeks. Kirk Cousins is better than this. The Vikings opened as a 1.5-point dog and quickly moved to 2.5 as the masses couldn’t wait to bet on Ryan Tannehill and the Titans as a road favorite. The very same Ryan Tannehill who is 21-27 ATS on the road in his career. I’m guessing most of those people only noticed that Tennessee beat Jacksonville last week and not the 480 yards of offense it allowed in the process. If the Jaguars can average 6.1 yards per carry against this Titans defense, what do you think Dalvin Cook will be able to do?
Key Trend: Minnesota is 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 as a home dog.
Panthers at Chargers, 4:05 p.m. | TV: CBSThe Pick: Panthers +6.5 (-110) — We’re buying on bad news here. There’s no denying that the Panthers offense is going to miss Christian McCaffrey. Still, I see this line as an overreaction. Justin Herbert looked pretty good in his debut last week, but the Chiefs spent all week preparing for Tyrod Taylor because not even the Chargers knew Herbert would be starting. He only did because of a freak accident. The Panthers will be ready for Herbert this week, and as enticing a prospect as he is, I’ve also seen the downsides of Herbert from his time at Oregon. Let’s say that, in a battle of Teddy Bridgewater and Justin Herbert, I’m not trusting the rookie as a favorite.
Key Trend: Teddy Bridgewater is 17-5 ATS when his team is the underdog.
Looking for more NFL picks? Make sure to check out our NFL Expert Picks page.
🏈 College Football | Full weekend schedule
Florida State at No. 12 Miami, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ABCThe Pick: Under 54 (-110) — Miami’s offense has been fantastic through two games. Still, we shouldn’t let last week’s performance carry too much weight. Louisville’s rush defense was terrible in 2019 and it doesn’t look much better in 2020. Saturday against Florida State, the new Miami offense will be going against the best defensive line it’s faced so far this year, and the Seminoles should do a better job of slowing it down. On the other side of the ball, I haven’t seen anything to suggest that Florida State’s offense will have a fun day against this Miami defense, either.
Key Trend: The under is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
If you’d like to see more of my college football picks for this weekend, read my weekly column The Six Pack.
SportsLine Pick of the Day: The SportsLine Projection Model is heavily favoring one side of Mariners vs. Athletics at 9:40 p.m. ET. SportsLine subscribers can get picks for that game, and for every other MLB game today, here.
💸 The DFS Rundown
Clayton Kershaw ($9.7 FD/$10K DK) — Hey, we’re already on the under in the Dodgers game tonight because of Kershaw, we might as well have him in our DFS lineups too. Kershaw had a clunker against the Diamondbacks three starts ago, but other than that game, he’s averaging 47.7 FanDuel points in his last seven starts. He’s a high floor option on a night without a lot of them.
Josh Bell, 1B ($2.6K FD/$4.6K DK) — I made a lot of money with Josh Bell last season as so many other DFS players were a bit slower on noticing what he was doing, but this year has been a disappointment for him. His price on both sites has plummeted because of it. He’s an excellent value tonight, however. In fact, I’m sniffing a home run for him off Carlos Carrasco. I’m going to have him in a lot of my lineups.
Full lineup advice
SportsLine’s team of DFS insiders has you covered for daily fantasy sports. Mike McClure has won almost $2 million playing DFS and is one of the top MLB DFS experts anywhere. Check out his MLB picks here, and be sure to see what he’s picking for NBA DFS here too. Use SportsLine’s all-new DFS Optimizer to get optimal NFL DFS picks from 10,000 simulations.
🏀 One-Stop Prop Shop
There isn’t a Stack Attack option I like a whole lot on tonight’s slate, but thankfully I’ve found some props for the Eastern Conference Finals we can make some money on.
Goran Dragic Over 4.0 Assists (-118)Jaylen Brown Over 6.5 Rebounds (-118)Duncan Robinson Over 9.5 Points (-118)